Showing posts with label probabilistic approach. Show all posts

Uncertainty Analysis in the Oil & Gas Industry- Why we keep underplaying uncertainty? Variables & Probability Distributions

at 6:43 AM

in deterministic approach, Experimental Design, Monte Carlo Simulation, probabilistic approach, Risk analysis

Uncertainty Analysis in the Oil & Gas Industry- Why we keep underplaying uncertainty? Variables & Probability Distributions...

Uncertainty Analysis in the Oil & Gas Industry- Why we keep underplaying uncertainty? Variables & Probability Distributions

In the last article, we looked at the current industry perception towards uncertainty analysis where we exposed some of the common biases we may have and how they may affect our decision making. We also considered some examples during the life of a field of decisions O&G professionals will face and the tools they have in order to quantify these risks. First however let’s try and define what uncertainty analysis is.

Probabilistic approach to benchmarking three numerical simulators Using the Egg Model

at 9:51 AM

in Decision Making, Experimental Design, Monte Carlo Simulation, probabilistic approach, Reservoir simulation, Risk analysis, UA, Uncertainty

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Probabilistic approach to benchmarking three numerical simulators Using the Egg Model A large number of the decisions taki...

Probabilistic approach to benchmarking three numerical simulators Using the Egg Model

A large number of the decisions taking by oil & gas companies rely on the evaluation of simulators to project resources and hence infrastructure, production, wells and operations. These simulators integrate rock physics and fluid dynamics to give a more realistic representation of the reservoir and its response during the field development. The inputs used for the simulators vary but mostly rely on data from geology, seismic as well as exploration and production in order for the models to be as accurate as possible.

Oil and Gas Decision Making - Why we keep underplaying uncertainty ?

at 10:10 AM

in deterministic approach, Experimental Design, probabilistic approach, Risk analysis, Simulation, UA

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As the o il industry has high challenges running day to day activities such as reservoir monitoring, management of the fiel...

As the oil industry has high challenges running day to day activities such as reservoir monitoring, management of the field, field development planning as well as estimating reserves and resources. Deterministic workflows reflect the capacity that we have as humans to process information, but the nature of our work should be stochastic to account for uncertainty. This article will be the first in a series of articles explaining the current industry environment towards uncertainty analysis and how as petroleum engineers we can efficiently make use of statistical learning techniques to help us in the movement from deterministic to probabilistic workflows.